Why I Can’t Support Ben Westlund
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I think the world of Sen. Ben Westlund, Oregon’s Independent candidate for Governor.
From Bend, his background,heart and mind is in the right place for healing some of the divide between rural and urban Oregon. His ideas for solving the state’s educational funding crisis are gutsy and innovative.
So why can’t I support Ben for Governor?
Not because I disagree with his politics. It is because I look at the polling and election math, and what I see scares me.
The polling I have seen shows that most of the votes Ben Westlund would take away would be those of Democrats, or independents- the majority of whom lean Democratic at least on social issues. I can think of at least one colleague who shares these pages, and whose perspective fits that description.
It is a given assumption that at least one-third of our electorate tends toward conservative Republicanism. And I do not think that Ben Westlund can make inroads there.
The frightening thing to me, then, is that a Westlund candidacy would take away enough votes from the Democratic nominee- probably Kulongoski again- to tip the balance to the Republican nominee. And who might that be? Jason Atkinson is a right wing, pro-business, anti-choice,property-rights fundamentalist. Kevin Mannix is little better.
And I have seen the likes of Ron Saxton before. They talk a moderate game,but when they get in, they remember their supporters.
True, most of a Republican Governor’s more radical initiatives would likely be blocked by a State Senate that will probably remain in Democratic hands, and a Court system with politically liberal inclinations. But I,for one, do not want the chief officer of this state advocating policies that are repulsive to me.
I know the counterarguments. The rural-urban divide has toxified this state’s politics, and Ben Westlund is a problem-solver and a healer. Yet I urge those folks who are currently thinking that way to do the practical political math that at least to me, overrides any feel-good aspects of Ben’s candidacy.
And no, I don’t think Ben, as an independent, has the funding and the heft to get elected. I know that you will come back and say that the only reason he might not win are people like me, who lack the boldness to step out front because they are afraid of losing the status quo.
But I argue for another type of boldness. Political calculation is boldness- being able to calibrate your emotions and your sentiments with realpolitik.
Unfortunately - as many Nader voters later realized - political calculation should be considered when you mail in your ballot.
So if the choice is between a likeable guy who phones it in (Ted) or a right-winger who opposes almost everything I believe in, I have to tell myself that I do not want an Oregon where reproductive freedoms, land-use planning, and yes, public education are eroded based on the imperatives of specific theological beliefs and economic selfishness.
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I can’t back him because he comes off as a conservative.
Don’t believe what you read in polls - or at least take another look at the huge swath of ‘I dunno’ voters still there.
And I’d argue that it’s waaaay too soon to make decisions about the viability of a Westlund candidate, or to take a ‘hedge your bets’ stance now.
Have to echo Betsy on this one…it’s WAYYY too early to be saying who you’ll back in November. We don’t even have any party nominees yet!
If you don’t like Ben enough now, don’t sign his petition. Or do - if you believe the state at least deserves to hear his message (which is where I’m at these days). I think it speaks volumes if he simply qualifies (no mean feat with the change in law demanding unaffiliated signatures). And don’t think he isn’t willing to fund a significant portion of the campaign out of his own pocket.
Ben Westlund is a smart and able guy. I don’t think he’s getting into this race to play “spoiler”. But he knows he has to prove that to you and many others. Why don’t you give him that chance??
Since “Way too Early” has already been said, may I point out what some Dems don’t like to hear:
The Democratic voters, for all intents and purposes, know who they’re nominee is going to be. It’s Kulongoski. Any Democrat dissatisfied with that result is going to be very amenable to the Westlund option.
On the other hand, Republicans still have a candidate for every flavor… and that means that until the primary is over, they’re ardent supporters of whichever horse they like. But after May 16, about 2/3 of them are going to be pretty sore at who their nominee turned out to be… And for the first time in a long time, they’ll have an option.
It’s going to get interesting.