The Blazer Visionquest: Where do we go from here?
I keep saying I’m done with the draft-time blogging. I’ve got a lawn to mow, a kid to pick up from day care, and a camping trip to pack for.
But I’ve been listening to “Doom & Gloom Radio” (aka Primetime on 1080 The Fan) and lamenting the continued whimpering at the Blazers’ decision to pass on Adam Morrison.
There’s some interesting talk going on there, though, about where we go next.
The main gist of their conversation is that it’s time for Portland to stop selling its fans on potential and development and time to start pushing a team that can actually play. This, surrounding talk of the choice to draft a not-quite-ready LaMarcus Aldridge onto a team with plenty of other PF options (like Zach, Raef, and Brian Skinner).
It got me thinking: What will the Blazers do next?
Thanks to Dave, we have the following chart of the current Blazers roster:
Point Guard:
Steve Blake
Jarrett Jack
Dan Dickau
(Sergio Rodriguez)
Shooting Guard:
Martell Webster
Juan Dixon
Brandon Roy
Small Forward:
Darius Miles
Travis Outlaw
Power Forward:
Zach Randolph
Brian Skinner
Raef LaFrentz
Lamarcus Aldridge
Center:
Ha Seung-Jin
(Joel Przybilla)
(Joel Freeland)
Per Dave, those in parentheses either are likely to stay overseas (Sergio and Freeland) or are not a sure-thing to return (Prz).
The FanBoys are talking about the fact that we are 4-deep at the 4, with players who aren’t particularly versatile in swinging between the 4 and the 5 (Zach and LaMarcus for sure, Skinner and Raef to a lesser extent). With limited time at the position and a developing need at the 5 (assuming Joel Prz wants money more than PT), the next logical question is will we trade Zach, and what will we get back?
I’m thinking maybe fans are looking the wrong direction. Whatever you think of Ian Furness, he’s right on one point: with Zach having a max contract, fans have to temper their expectations of what we get in return, given his character issues, his micro-fracture surgery, and his other intangibles.
Zach is a legitimate, bona-fide 20/10 guy. Would we get that in trade?
Meanwhile, we have the extremely undesirable Darius Miles, who the team absolutely doesn’t want back, and who has limited trade value with relation to his contract.
I wonder: did we draft LaMarcus to sweeten the pot for a Darius trade?
We have limited options to make Darius move. We can try to trade him straight-up, but noone’s fool enough to do that. We can trade him with a draft pick, but a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. So, probably the best option is to trade him with a young, cheap, talented player who a team will jump at.
Our roster has a few choices in that regard. Jarrett, Martell, Travis Outlaw, Brandon Roy, and now LaMarcus Aldridge. Jarrett appears to be the point guard of the future. Martell appears to be the SF/SG of the present. Brandon looks like a SG/PG for the future. Outlaw finally started developing at the end of last season, and is a good bet for consistent, good play at the SF if given the time to work himself into a rhythm.
Then, there’s Aldridge. He’s described as being similar to Zach and Raef in that he doesn’t like to back-in on the offense and would rather face the basket to set up his shot. We don’t need three of that guy.
Of course, if we could clear up the financial logjam at the PF, that would be great. But we won’t find a willing buyer on Raef, and we probably can’t get equal value out of Zach. And, again, we need to move Darius.
I see the next big headline as “Blazers trade Miles, Aldridge for X”. X, I predict, will be a big-money, established center with two to three years on his contract, a pretty clean bill of health, and the ability to impact the game immediately.
i could be way off. But it’s how I’m reading the tea leaves.
How ’bout you?
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I hope they hang on to Aldridge unless they get something even better in return. I’m sure 1080TheFan fussed over there being too many untested players. But this draft is unlike any we’ve had in so long… TWO lottery pics AND they’re college tested. They aren’t projects, they’re quality players on a team that needs them now. Hell, I bet the kid from Spain will crack the roster if we deal one of our PGs (he looks damned good in highlight reels and some thought he was the best PG in the draft).
The point is, some young teams work, others don’t. Last year’s squad didn’t work, so they’re seemingly gutting it and bringing in Nate-attitude guys. F-ing fine by me. I’m not worried the roster will be as unbalanced by tip-off, and even if they stay relatively pat, I sincerely believe this is a better squad.
TK — I hope they hang onto Aldridge too.
In fact, in thinking more about my theory, it doesn’t make sense in that we gave up Khryapa to get him. If we were just drafting a chip to ship with Darius, Thomas would’ve worked just fine.
Unless we’re trying to strong-arm a team that wants Aldridge and has a center we’re looking for.
Maybe we view Aldridge as yet another of the NBA’s new breed of small centers. I don’t know.
If we keep Aldridge, then I see us shipping another player (or two) with Darius. Maybe Blake. Maybe Dixon. Both represent positions where we’re too full.
But I don’t see a straight across trade of Darius without some sweetener, at least not if we’re trying to get value in return.
Which re-raises the question of Zach. Are we at the end of the Z-Bo era?
If so, look for a trade of Z-Bo and Dixon or Blake for X, and a trade of Darius and whoever’s left between Dixon and Blake for Y. X is the center I mentioned before. Y is a back-up PF/SF who knows he’s a reserve and won’t rock the boat, but who can provide some veteran leadership in the locker room…