Even though it’s warm and sunny outside right now, you might cast your mind back to the snow storm that hit Portland in January 2004. That first week of the new year we got a foot of snow, frigid temperatures, and freezing rain. News programs kept playing footage of cars tobogganing down Johnson Creek Boulevard. I was stuck at home for a couple of days, and finally slogged to the bus stop so I could get in to work. Why bring all this up now? Oregon state climatologist George Taylor has just released his annual fall and winter forecast for the state ^[1], and he predicts “a good chance of one or more significant snow events in the Portland area” this winter.

His forecast for Oregon includes warmer than average temperatures, and average to somewhat above-average precipitation. Mountain snows may be a little deeper than average, especially in southern Oregon, and skiing may not be as good as it was last year, but should be decent. But even though he thinks low elevation snows are not likely to occur, he believes that “at least one large snow event (4 inches or more) is likely for the Portland area”. Particularly in those parts of Portland on the east side, where that icy wind comes blasting out of the Gorge.

You can decide for yourself how seriously to take a winter forecast that’s released before the end of August. But Mr. Taylor is careful to point out that his forecast for 2005 was ” probably our most successful forecast ever”.

I guess I better get a new pair of boots, and make sure the chains are in the car.